Hold em or Fold em? 4/28/06

Hobbes30111 [$2050]
Kwickfish [$2364]

Dealt to Kwickfish [ Qc, As ]

MyRenovatio folds.
lizy306 folds.
Hobbes30111 raises (80) to 80
snappo1 folds.
jl3053 folds.
Kwickfish raises (230) to 250
Hobbes30111 calls (170)
** Dealing Flop ** :  [ Td, 8s, 8h ]
Kwickfish bets (350)
Hobbes30111 calls (350)
** Dealing Turn ** :  [ Th ]
Kwickfish checks.
Hobbes30111 bets (1450)
Hobbes30111 is all-In.

** Hold em or Fold em?

Well, this was a pretty tough decision, he bet $1450 into a pot of $1100.  First
off, what the hell is this guy trying to convice me he has?  99?  JJ?  If he had
the T or the 8, he wouldn't just go all-in like this, and he might if he had 99
or JJ, but i think i would have heard from him more on the flop, like a bet into
me, or a small check raise (that seems to be what many of these players do with
hands like that).  At this point I'm thinkin he made a brave call on the flop
with a hand like 77 or 66, etc. and got counterfeited on the turn.  Now he decides
the only way he can win the pot is with a huge bet.  However, he forgot one
important detail....he was in the pot with the fish, and should not try to represent
something he doesn't have, because the fish will see right through it.

Kwickfish calls (1450)
** Dealing River ** :  [ 6h ]
Hobbes30111 shows [ Js 7s ] two pair, jack high

Turns out I gave him too much credit...

Day 5 - The nightmare

I had a tough time sleeping after day 4. In part, because I kept replaying hands that happened throughout the day, in part because I was nervous about the next day, and also in part, because it almost felt as though reality was a dream, and my dreams were more reality. Anyway, now that I've confused all of you, I'll tell you some of the hands from the last day. First hand of the day, I decide to raise UTG because I'm the chip leader, and I want to steal as many blinds and antes as possible before they combine tables. I raise with K6o and folds around to Patrick Antonious, who quickly moves all-in for $450,000. I was getting 2:1 on my money, and really wanted to call, but decided against it, after a very long discussion with a friend who was convinced I should fold if either Men or Patrick shoved in for their short stacks, because they would have to have monsters in order to do so. (He also told me not to raise with K6o, and I did, so I guess I should have either followed his advice from the start, or did my own thing throughout the entire hand). Then the tables broke shortly after and I drew an absolutely god-aweful seat. After about an hour of getting dealt T5o and the like things were getting pretty frustrating. I won two pots at this table. The first - folds to my cutoff, I make it $200,000 with A8o and folds. The second, folds to me on off the cutoff, I make it $130,000 with Q7o (one of my better hands of the day), BB calls. Flop comes Axx, he checks, I bet $150,000, he folds. Every other pot, I either raised preflop and someone re-raised me. Or I raised preflop and someone called and went all-in into me. Considering I didn't flop a single pair or draw all day - with the exception of a gutshot I had one time - I could never call. This is no exaggeration, I didn't flop anything! Not only that, but I was dealt A8o, A6s, 88, and 55 as my best starting hands. The next best was probably my Q7o that I took down with a bet on the flop, and every single other hand wouldn't even be played by Gus Hansen himself. Anyway, in case you couldn't tell, I was a little bitter about the whole day, and by the time AT rolled around, that was lookin a lot like AA to me, so I decided to run with it, but ran into AQ right behind me. Although it didn't affect the outcome of the hand, I was very upset with myself for not pulling a stop and go on any flop. I had enough to get him to fold if he had nothing on the flop, but got it all-in preflop instead. Anway, he would have called, because he flopped a nut flush draw with two overs and my fate was sealed in either scenario. All I can say is that was one hell of an experience, and I can't wait until my next big-buy-in tournament - most likely in Paris.

Day 4...way back when

Day 4 was really good to me. I started the day with $500,000 and was up to 2.6 million at one point, but ended the day with 2.245 million. Here were a few of the hands

Dealt to the fish [QhTh]
UTG folds.
Fish makes it $40,000
fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold
BB calls [$28,000]
Flop: Ts9s5h
check, fish makes it $60,000, call
Turn: 7c
check, fish quickly moves all-in for $325,000, think forever - fold
Kwickfish: well, you obviously didn't have better than one pair, so good fold
BB: I couldn't beat a pair of Jacks
Kwickfish: so you had AT?
BB: something like that

That pot put me back up to $500,000+ (after losing a couple pots to start the day off). Then, after being moved to another table, the following hand happened. Second position makes it $40,000, then Chip Jett, immediately behind the guy makes it $150,000. I'm in the small blind and fairly quickly move all-in after looking at AsKs. Second position quickly mucks, then Chip Jett thinks for a while and mucks AKo face up. Cha Ching! huge pot for the fish, now I'm up to $700,000.

The very next hand I'm on the button and folds to me, only to look down and see AA. I make it $40,000 and Chad Brown calls in the BB (he is the chip leader of the table). Flop comes Jh4sTh. Check, I bet $70,000 fairly quickly and he calls pretty quickly. Turn: 3d. He checks, and I check. River comes 2s. He fires $90,000, then I think for a really long time and finally decide to make it $200,000 and he quickly calls. Boom, the fish now up to 1 million.

Now I get moved to another table and let the blind stealing begin! I tried to only play small pots, but every now and then a big pot would come up, such as the following two hands. Folds around to Evelyn Ng in the small blind and she makes it $65,000 and I call the $45,000 more in the BB with 6d5d. Flop comes As4d3d. She fires out $100,000 and I make it $300,000, she quickly moves all-in for $1.2 million total and I call. She shows AK, but when the turn comes the Qd, she is drawing dead and the fish now a monster stack with 2.4 million.

Shortly after, I raise to $65,000 in late position with Ad7d and Victor Ramdin calls in the BB. Flop comes 8d2d2c. He checks, and I fire out $100,000, he quickly calls. Turn comes a 7, he checks, I now fire out $200,000 to keep the pressure on his pocket pair, or pair of 8's. He quickly calls again. River comes a complete blank, check, check. He shows pocket tens, and rakes in a big pot from me.

I was then moved to another table, and picked up a lot of pots with a preflop raise. I decided to gamble for a huge pot, but didn't like how I played it - I should have just re-raised the initial raiser, and either the same outcome would have happened, or I might have split the pot with Chan. Chad Brown UTG raises to $60,000, I call in third position, and Johnny Chan immediately makes it$300,000, leaving himself with $15,000. Folds back to Brown, who thinks forever and finally makes the call, leaving himself with $350,000 or so. I think forever about what these two guys have, and just feel certain that neither of them have a huge hand, and want to gamble to pick up this 1 million dollar pot, so I call. Flop comes Ts2s2h. Check, check, check. Turn 3d. Brown bets $20k, I call, Chan calls all-in. River 3s. Brown bets $250,000 and I fold. Brown shows TT and Chan is eliminated.

**Let the back luck begin**
Shortly thereafter I was moved to a table two to the left of Patrick Antonious, who was the chip leader with about 4.5 million. Almost every single pot was raised by him, forcing me to fold many hands that otherwise would have most likely won me the blinds. When he did fold, and I raised, some amateur at the table would shove all-in, and I could never call the million more or whatever they shoved in for. All day I had very few pocket pairs, and other legitimate starting hands, but this day was my best day of the tournament, and I was really happy with how I played, regardless of the lack of cards.

Day 3 Survival

Ok, so Day 3 was not as good to me as I had hoped, but I made it through, and into the money. I decided to pick up my usual pots when it looked like no one wanted the pot, or when the opportunity presented itself. However, today, I tried to accumulate monster chips additionally by gambling a little. A few big key pots that I played in were the following:

1) Phil Helmuth raised my blind yet again in second position, forth position calls, button calls, I look down at KQo and think forver about coming over the top huge, but decide to just see a flop and call the 10k more in the small blind, and big blind checks. Flop comes JT8 with two diamonds. I check, big blind checks, and forth position makes it 35k, leaving himself with 21k more. Button folds, and now I have a very tough decision. There is already over 110k in the pot and it would cost me 56k to play with forth position, which would mean the pot would ultimately lay me a little over 2.5:1 odds to call, assuming he gets it all-in at some point during the hand. At this point I have no clue what forth position has, so for all I know a King or Queen might be good, if he has say the AdJd. One thing is for sure, though - he has a hand he's going with. I also have the big blind and Helmuth behind me, but decide if they want to put a bunch of money in the pot, that is just fine by me, I have them all covered, and if I lost to the biggest stack of the three opponents, I would be down to 200k, which is still above average. I decide to call. Both the big blind and Helmuth fold, and the turn comes the 9c. Beautiful! I have the stone cold nuts! My opponent pre-emptively goes all-in and I call, he immediately announces that he needs the board to pair and flips over TT for a set. Unfortunately the river quickly comes a Jack, and I didn't even have time to celebrate my hit, haha. That pot was over $222,000, which was devastating, both to my chip count, and to my future play, because now people are going to assume that I'm on tilt if I put big money into a pot, and probably re-raise me with mediocre hands. The very next hand I picked up 99 and had to flat call a preflop raise, rather than re-raise like I normally would have done, because I didn't want to play an all-in pot and hope had just had overcards.

2) It was bubble time, and that meant that the "kwickfish" style was in full force. I had raised and re-raised four or five out of the last eight hands, and now it was folds to my button. I looked down and quickly made it 30k, yet again with QsJs. The small blind thinks forver about drawing the line, but opts to fold, and Helmuth in the big blind immediately announces "ALL-IN" for $152,000. I think for a short while and decide to call, because I think he could be doing this with many marginal hands, given my current table image. He asks me if I have a pair, and then shows his 22. I show him my hand, and off we go to the races. BOOM! AhJ6h on the flop! Turn comes the xh, and river comes the Qh. Devastating! That pot had $318,000 in it.

3) Second to last hand of the day, and the fish is hurting....down to 250k or so. I look down in third position and see AcQc and make it 35k. Folds around to D'Agostino who quickly moves all-in for almost exactly 200k. Folds back to me, and I have a pretty tough decision, because I'm not getting the right price if has AK, but it would be a horrible fold if he has JJ or a smaller pair. I end up reluctantly calling, and he flips over 99 to my relief, and off we go to the races yet again. I flop an A, and luckily no runner runner flushes, and now I have 500k going into day 4. Wish me luck!

Day 2

Well, Im still in the tournament, and playing very well. Top three hands of the day were:
3) Victor Ramden raises to $5,100 in 4th position with the blinds at $800-$1,600 and $200 ante. Folds around to me in the small blind, and I call with Kh9h. I have around $170,000 and he has around $80,000. Flop comes Tc9c7d. I check quickly, followed by a check from Victor. Turn comes 5c. I quickly reach for chips and bet $6,000, and he thinks for a little while and calls. River is the 2h. I think for a short while and check. He bets $15,000 fairly quickly and I immediately call. He announces "King high" and I show him my call with middle pair for a pretty large pot.

2) Victor Ramden decides to try to steal my big blind yet again in 4th position, followed by a quick call from the guy right behind him in seat 3. Folds around to me, and I think Victor doesnt have that big of a hand, based on the casual way he threw in the chips, and the caller behind him obviously cant have a huge hand either. I decide any two cards are a big raise, and my 9d7s didnt stop me. I make it $15,000 more, for a total of $19,100. Victor quickly folds his garbage hand, as expected, but then the other guy calls to my surprise. He has $130,000 or so starting the hand, and I had $240,000 or so. The flop comes Th8h4s. I think for a really long time about what to do, since I have so many options here. I could check-raise, check-call, bet big, bet small and re-raise all-in if I'm re-raised, or bet small and flat call if I get raised. (If you're thinking folding is an option here, you are sadly, sadly mistaken). I decide to bet $15,000 and I was going to decide what to do next, based on his reaction to my bet. I felt if he raised, and I thought he had nothing, I would go all-in. However, if he raised, and I thought he had a good hand, I was going to flat call. However, he ended up flat calling. The turn came the 6h, bringing the third heart and making my straight. I thought for a really really long time about what the proper play was. I decided there was no way I could put him on a flush, because I thought he would have raised me on the flop, and I thought the chances of him calling my preflop re-raise without a pair were slim to non. I also decided that I couldn't risk betting big and getting flat called again incase another heart came. Therefore, I moved all-in for $110,000 into the pot of $65,000 or so (I also thought he might make a crazy brave call with a pair of Jacks here). He thought for about five minutes, then folded, and the fish raked in yet another monster pot.

1) Ok, so these people didn't know at the beginning to middle of the day, but by the end of the day they realized.... do NOT try to steal the fish's blind! I folded my big blind three times today, and all three times it was raised and re-raised before me. Folds around to seat four (sixth position) and he makes it $4,000 with blinds at $600-$1,200 and a $200 ante. Folds to me, in the big blind, and I look down and see JsTs. Now most of you know that the odds of me folding here are zero and zero - the only question here is whether I'm going to make this guy wish he didn't raise my blind right now, or later in the hand. I decide to flat call and hope to play a monster pot (most likely on a bluff, even though JTs usually flops at least something). He has around $110,000 and I have around $180,000. Flop comes 8s5s3h. I bet into the raiser, hoping he would raise or fold, what I did not want was a flat call. He very quickly makes it $14,000. Now, most of you are thinking "ok, the fish is obviously going to raise here, right?" However, at this point, I have no doubt that the pot is mine, no matter what comes on the turn, so I decide to get greedy and flat call, knowing that this douchebag is going to bet the turn. Turn comes the Ac and I check fairly quickly. The raiser doesn't disappoint, and makes it $15,000. I think for about thirty seconds and make it $45,000, knowing there is no possibly way he can re-raise me unless he has a set of Aces or Asxs, in which case I'm drawing dead anyway, and would love to fold my hand before making a fatal flush. He quickly acknowledges that I most likely flopped a set on him, and threw away his hand.

Anyway, I need some sleep, a big day coming up tomorrow. I'll update you at the end of the day.

Kwick

WPT Championship Event

I find it kind of ironic that two days ago Moon had to talk the Gambler and I into playing the second satellite into the Championship Event. Gambler ended up with a devastating bubble finish at 54th when 51 got seats. I was lucky enough to get a seat (and I do mean lucky-getting it all-in with 78o against J3o and sucking out, and getting it all-in with A2s against 55 and sucking out). The first day of the event was yesterday, and I felt extremely comfortable, despite all the big names all over the place, and playing without my hat, sunglasses, or IPOD. It was pretty much just like a deep stack NL cash game, which is my specialty. I hope the structure stays this way for as long as possible, because I truely beleive that I have a great shot at winning this tournament. I drew a pretty lucky seat yesterday - to the left of a complete maniac named Amir Nasseri, who plays in the highest NL cash game tables. However, having position on him made my life much easier. Also at the table was Lyle Berman, and for a brief time Gabe Thaylor. I have today off, so tomorrow I'll have to get my game face back on. Wish me luck

DNFWK

ELtilto44 [$8129.89]
Kwickfish [$3663]

Dealt to Kwickfish [ 3d, 3c ]

Jackal86 folds.
Michelle_18 folds.
loloTRICKEDu folds.
Kwickfish raises (75) to 75
caspis folds.
ELtilto44 calls (55)
** Dealing Flop ** :  [ 2h, 5h, As ]
ELtilto44 checks.
Kwickfish bets (125)
ELtilto44 raises (250) to 250
Kwickfish calls (125)
** Dealing Turn ** :  [ 8h ]
ELtilto44 bets (522.25)
Kwickfish raises (1500) to 1500
ELtilto44 calls (977.75)
** Dealing River ** :  [ Ah ]
ELtilto44 checks.
Kwickfish bets (1838)
Kwickfish is all-In.
ELtilto44 folds.

The power of the fish...

Causes decent players to do some pretty horrible plays, haha

Kwickfish [$6469.98]
BLdSWtTRs [$2063]

Dealt to Kwickfish [ Ts, Td ]

BLdSWtTRs raises (89) to 89
Kwickfish raises (300) to 300
ReMMy3 folds.
drmanic folds.
calleverythn folds.
Dardumbyu folds.
BLdSWtTRs raises (1974) to 2063
BLdSWtTRs is all-In.
Kwickfish calls (1763)
** Dealing Flop ** :  [ Qh, 4s, Jd ]
** Dealing Turn ** :  [ 4h ]
** Dealing River ** :  [ 5d ]

BLdSWtTRs shows[ Th 8h ]